IF4838 Timing and Forecasting in Financial MarketsBahçeşehir UniversityDegree Programs ADVERTISINGGeneral Information For StudentsDiploma SupplementErasmus Policy StatementNational QualificationsBologna Commission
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Bachelor TR-NQF-HE: Level 6 QF-EHEA: First Cycle EQF-LLL: Level 6

Course Introduction and Application Information

Course Code Course Name Semester Theoretical Practical Credit ECTS
IF4838 Timing and Forecasting in Financial Markets Spring 3 0 3 9
This catalog is for information purposes. Course status is determined by the relevant department at the beginning of semester.

Basic information

Language of instruction: English
Type of course: Non-Departmental Elective
Course Level: Bachelor’s Degree (First Cycle)
Mode of Delivery: Face to face
Course Coordinator : Assist. Prof. BAHAR KÖSEOĞLU
Course Lecturer(s): Assoc. Prof. HAKKI ÖZTÜRK
Recommended Optional Program Components: None
Course Objectives: Timing and forecasting in financial markets using technical analysis is forecasting of market prices of any securities or commodities by the process of analyzing a security’s historical prices. “Technical analysis is based upon the idea that markets move in trends, and that trends are determined by investor's reactions to a wide variety of changing forces" (Martin J.Pring). Technical Analysis is somewhat different from other courses in the sense that it is more art than science. It is about subjectively evaluating and interpreting formations and signals, then decide according to these criteria about the possible direction of the stock and the market. Due to this nature, it is basically a practice oriented course.
I will be using the programs Bloomberg, Metastock, and Foreks with real-time market data.

Learning Outcomes

The students who have succeeded in this course;
At the end of the course, you will be able to:

1. gained knowledge about Dow Theory
2. acquired in-depth knowledge of the principles of technical analysis.
3. Developed understanding of trendlines
4. gained insight into indicators.
5. acquired the competence to understand various patterns

Course Content

Metastock program, price charts, major indicators and oscillators , timing in security markets, construct a buy-sell systems

Weekly Detailed Course Contents

Week Subject Related Preparation
1) Introduction Course Schedule Expectations
2) Technical Analysis versus Fundamental Analysis
3) Introduction to Technical Market Analysis. What is Technical Analysis? Does it work? Dow Theory, Objections to Technical Analysis and Efficiency Hypothesis.
4) What is a trend? Support and Resistance Lines
5) Major Patterns: Double Tops, Double Bottoms, Head and Shoulders, Triangles, Flags, etc.
6) Major Patterns: Double Tops, Double Bottoms, Head and Shoulders, Triangles, Flags, etc.
7) Charts: Bar, Line, Point and Figure, Candlesticks
7) Momentum, P(ROC)
8) Fibonnacci Analysis Gaps
9) Midterm Exam
10) Concept of Moving Averages, Creating a Moving Average Signal, Different Types of Moving Averages
11) Indicators and Oscillators: RSI, MACD, Stochastic ROC, Momentum
12) Indicators and Oscillators:Trix, Directional Moving Indicator
13) Divergency and Divergence Trading
14) Review and Questions-Answers Session

Sources

Course Notes / Textbooks: Martin J. Pring. "Technical Analysis Explained. The Successful Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points", McGraw- Hill, 2014.

Hakkı Öztürk "How Rewarding Is Divergence Trading In Technical Analysis? Emprical Tests For Stock Exchanges, Commodities and Currency Pairs", LAP, Germany, 2017. (with M. Fatih Güneş)


References:
Martin J. Pring. "Technical Analysis Explained. The Successful Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points", McGraw- Hill, 2014.

Hakkı Öztürk "How Rewarding Is Divergence Trading In Technical Analysis? Emprical Tests For Stock Exchanges, Commodities and Currency Pairs", LAP, Germany, 2017. (with M. Fatih Güneş)

Evaluation System

Semester Requirements Number of Activities Level of Contribution
Midterms 1 % 50
Final 1 % 50
Total % 100
PERCENTAGE OF SEMESTER WORK % 50
PERCENTAGE OF FINAL WORK % 50
Total % 100

ECTS / Workload Table

Activities Number of Activities Duration (Hours) Workload
Course Hours 14 3 42
Application 14 2 28
Study Hours Out of Class 14 3 42
Homework Assignments 1 25 25
Midterms 1 35 35
Final 1 45 45
Total Workload 217

Contribution of Learning Outcomes to Programme Outcomes

No Effect 1 Lowest 2 Low 3 Average 4 High 5 Highest
           
Program Outcomes Level of Contribution
1) To be able to apply theoretical concepts related to mass communication, consumer behavior, psychology, persuasion,sociology, marketing, and other related fields to understand how advertising and brand communication works in a free-market economy. 2
2) To be able to critically discuss and interpret theories, concepts, methods, tools and ideas in the field of advertising. 2
3) To be able to research, create, design, write, and present an advertising campaign and brand strategies of their own creation and compete for an account as they would at an advertising agency. 2
4) To be able to analyze primary and secondary research data for a variety of products and services. 2
5) To be able to develop an understanding of the history of advertising as it relates to the emergence of mass media outlets and the importance of advertising in the marketplace. 2
6) To be able to follow developments, techniques, methods, as well as research in advertising field; and to be able to communicate with international colleagues in a foreign language. (“European Language Portfolio Global Scale”, Level B1) 2
7) To be able to take responsibility in an individual capacity or as a team in generating solutions to unexpected problems that arise during implementation process in the Advertising field. 3
8) To be able to understand how advertising works in a global economy, taking into account cultural, societal, political, and economic differences that exist across countries and cultures. 2
9) To be able to approach the dynamics of the field with an integrated perspective, with creative and critical thinking, develop original and creative strategies. 2
10) To be able to to create strategic advertisements for print, broadcast, online and other media, as well as how to integrate a campaign idea across several media categories in a culturally diverse marketplace. 2
11) To be able to use computer software required by the discipline and to possess advanced-level computing and IT skills. (“European Computer Driving Licence”, Advanced Level) 2
12) To be able to identify and meet the demands of learning requirements. 2
13) To be able to develop an understanding and appreciation of the core ethical principles of the advertising profession. 2