INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING
Bachelor TR-NQF-HE: Level 6 QF-EHEA: First Cycle EQF-LLL: Level 6

Course Introduction and Application Information

Course Code Course Name Semester Theoretical Practical Credit ECTS
IF4838 Timing and Forecasting in Financial Markets Fall 3 0 3 9
This catalog is for information purposes. Course status is determined by the relevant department at the beginning of semester.

Basic information

Language of instruction: English
Type of course: Non-Departmental Elective
Course Level: Bachelor’s Degree (First Cycle)
Mode of Delivery: Face to face
Course Coordinator : Assist. Prof. BAHAR KÖSEOĞLU
Course Lecturer(s): Prof. Dr. HAKKI ÖZTÜRK
Recommended Optional Program Components: None
Course Objectives: Timing and forecasting in financial markets using technical analysis is forecasting of market prices of any securities or commodities by the process of analyzing a security’s historical prices. “Technical analysis is based upon the idea that markets move in trends, and that trends are determined by investor's reactions to a wide variety of changing forces" (Martin J.Pring). Technical Analysis is somewhat different from other courses in the sense that it is more art than science. It is about subjectively evaluating and interpreting formations and signals, then decide according to these criteria about the possible direction of the stock and the market. Due to this nature, it is basically a practice oriented course.
I will be using the programs Bloomberg, Metastock, and Foreks with real-time market data.

Learning Outcomes

The students who have succeeded in this course;
At the end of the course, you will be able to:

1. gained knowledge about Dow Theory
2. acquired in-depth knowledge of the principles of technical analysis.
3. Developed understanding of trendlines
4. gained insight into indicators.
5. acquired the competence to understand various patterns

Course Content

Price charts, major indicators and oscillators , timing in security markets, construct a buy-sell systems
Teaching methods of the course are “Lecture, Individual Study, Reading, Problem Solving, Case Study, Discussion”

Weekly Detailed Course Contents

Week Subject Related Preparation
1) Introduction Course Schedule Expectations
2) Technical Analysis versus Fundamental Analysis
3) Introduction to Technical Market Analysis. What is Technical Analysis? Does it work? Dow Theory, Objections to Technical Analysis and Efficiency Hypothesis.
4) What is a trend? Support and Resistance Lines
5) Major Patterns: Double Tops, Double Bottoms, Head and Shoulders, Triangles, Flags, etc.
6) Major Patterns: Double Tops, Double Bottoms, Head and Shoulders, Triangles, Flags, etc.
7) Charts: Bar, Line, Point and Figure, Candlesticks
7) Momentum, P(ROC)
8) Fibonnacci Analysis Gaps
9) Midterm Exam
10) Concept of Moving Averages, Creating a Moving Average Signal, Different Types of Moving Averages
11) Indicators and Oscillators: RSI, MACD, Stochastic ROC, Momentum
12) Indicators and Oscillators:Trix, Directional Moving Indicator
13) Divergency and Divergence Trading
14) Review and Questions-Answers Session

Sources

Course Notes / Textbooks: Martin J. Pring. "Technical Analysis Explained. The Successful Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points", McGraw- Hill, 2014.

Hakkı Öztürk "How Rewarding Is Divergence Trading In Technical Analysis? Emprical Tests For Stock Exchanges, Commodities and Currency Pairs", LAP, Germany, 2017. (with M. Fatih Güneş)


References:
Martin J. Pring. "Technical Analysis Explained. The Successful Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points", McGraw- Hill, 2014.

Hakkı Öztürk "How Rewarding Is Divergence Trading In Technical Analysis? Emprical Tests For Stock Exchanges, Commodities and Currency Pairs", LAP, Germany, 2017. (with M. Fatih Güneş)

Evaluation System

Semester Requirements Number of Activities Level of Contribution
Midterms 1 % 50
Final 1 % 50
Total % 100
PERCENTAGE OF SEMESTER WORK % 50
PERCENTAGE OF FINAL WORK % 50
Total % 100

ECTS / Workload Table

Activities Number of Activities Duration (Hours) Workload
Course Hours 13 3 39
Study Hours Out of Class 14 13 182
Midterms 1 2 2
Final 1 2 2
Total Workload 225

Contribution of Learning Outcomes to Programme Outcomes

No Effect 1 Lowest 2 Low 3 Average 4 High 5 Highest
           
Program Outcomes Level of Contribution
1) Build up a body of knowledge in mathematics, science and industrial engineering subjects; use theoretical and applied information in these areas to model and solve complex engineering problems.
2) Identify, formulate, and solve complex engineering problems; select and apply proper analysis and modeling methods for this purpose.
3) Design a complex system, process, device or product under realistic constraints and conditions, in such a way as to meet the desired result; apply modern design methods for this purpose. The ability to apply modern design methods to meet this objective.
4) Devise, select, and use modern techniques and tools needed for solving complex problems in industrial engineering practice; employ information technologies effectively.
5) Design and conduct experiments, collect data, analyze and interpret results for investigating the complex problems specific to industrial engineering.
6) Cooperate efficiently in intra-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary teams; and show self-reliance when working independently.
7) Demonstrate effective communication skills in both oral and written English and Turkish. Writing and understanding reports, preparing design and production reports, making effective presentations, giving and receiving clear and understandable instructions.
8) Recognize the need for lifelong learning; show ability to access information, to follow developments in science and technology, and to continuously educate him/herself. 3
9) Develop an awareness of professional and ethical responsibility, and behaving accordingly. Information about the standards used in engineering applications.
10) Know business life practices such as project management, risk management, and change management; develop an awareness of entrepreneurship, innovation, and sustainable development. 4
11) Know contemporary issues and the global and societal effects of modern age engineering practices on health, environment, and safety; recognize the legal consequences of engineering solutions.
12) Develop effective and efficient managerial skills.